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AA — Alcoa

Materials

Last price
$29.03
2025-05-16
52w high
$46.67
-37.8% off high
5yr return
-13%
since 2021-05-25
Active modes
0/3
BUY or WATCH
Price chart — last 12 months
Price with 50-day & 200-day MAs. Colored dots mark historical reversal-signal firings — see legend below.
Signal events on chart (last 252 days)
RSI crossed 50×13
50DMA reclaimed×3
Golden cross×1
Higher lows (5)×8
Volume accumulation×17
Bullish RSI divergence×4
Oversold / Fear
SKIP
🩸 Deep drawdown0/8·0w

Quality gate failed: gross margin 16.9% < 40%; operating margin 9.6% < 15%; ROIC 14.2% < 15%; revenue CAGR 1.4% < 8%.

Acceleration
SKIP
🩸 Deep drawdown0/8·0w

Quality gate failed: gross margin 16.9% < 40%; operating margin 9.6% < 15%; ROIC 14.2% < 15%; revenue CAGR 1.4% < 8%.

Quality at Fair Price
SKIP
🩸 Deep drawdown0/8·0w

Quality gate failed: gross margin 16.9% < 40%; operating margin 9.6% < 15%; ROIC 14.2% < 15%; revenue CAGR 1.4% < 8%.

Score trajectory
How the score has evolved across recent scans for each mode. Rising score = setup forming.
Annual fundamentals
From yahoo fundamentalsTimeSeries (annual cadence).
Year-endRevenueFCFGross %Op %ROICEPS
2025-12-3112.83B1.19B16.9%9.6%14.2%$
2024-12-3111.89B622.00M15.6%7.4%11.4%$
2023-12-3110.55B91.00M7.0%-1.5%-2.1%$
2022-12-3112.45B822.00M18.0%11.1%16.5%$
2021-12-3112.15B920.00M24.7%17.1%25.9%$
2020-12-319.29B394.00M14.2%4.6%5.8%$
2019-12-3110.43B686.00M18.2%8.4%11.4%$
Universe metadata
Materials

Hand off to Claude for qualitative deep-dive

Claude deep-dive prompt

My stock-scanner has flagged AA with the following signals across multiple scoring modes:

1. Quality gate failed or no signals firing across all 3 modes — the framework currently sees no setup. Why might that be?

Please do a current deep-dive on AA:

1. What's the actual business / what do they sell, in plain English?
2. Recent news + narrative: why is the market pricing this where it is right now? What's the bear case being priced in?
3. Is the long-term thesis intact, or has something fundamentally broken (moat erosion, secular decline, management issues)?
4. What's the upcoming catalyst calendar — earnings, product launches, regulatory dates?
5. Compare to peers: cheaper than peers / more expensive / similar?
6. If buying: is now the right entry, or is there a smarter staged-accumulation plan? Suggest specific price levels.
7. What's the biggest risk to a long position from here?

Use web search for any recent news (last 30 days) to ground your answer in current reality, not training cutoff.